Political waves also take predictable courses, and the final outcome is almost always worse for the losing party than analysts predicted six months out. AdvertisementIn 2018’s Democratic wave, Cook’s June 1 House ratings listed seven GOP-held seats as leaning or likely Democrats and another 23 as toss-ups. It’s perfectly understandable why election analysts tend to be cautious, even if they suspect the election cycle is developing in a particular direction. All this means Democrats will be thankful if they lose only 20 to 35 House seats this fall. They know they could lose as many as 40 or even 50 seats, propelling Republicans to their greatest House majority since 1928.

Source: Washington Post June 02, 2022 10:45 UTC